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While indirectly related to real estate, confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell for a second month in October, reinforcing the views of Federal Reserve policy makers who say household spending continues to be restrained by rising unemployment.
The emerging recovery from the deepest recession since the 1930s may fall short of expectations without a sustained rebound in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. A separate report showed an index of home prices rose in August, indicating the housing market, while stabilizing, may be getting a boost from government aid.
Home sales have gotten a boost from the $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers and mortgage rates that have been held near historic lows by the Fed’s program to buy $1.2 trillion of mortgage-backed securities.
“The good news about this is it really looks like a bottom,” Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index, said recently in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “The two risks are, employment is terrible and the pipeline is still full of foreclosures. That has to be cleared out eventually for this to really turn up and produce a recovery.”
The homebuyer tax credit, due to expire at the end of November has been extended through April 30 of next year. First-time buyers who are in the process of making a purchase don't need to worry about qualifying for the $8,000 credit if they close after the November 30 deadline.
For the first time, the legislation that was recently cleared makes move-up buyers as well as first-time buyers eligible for a credit.
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Over the past few months, there have been suggestions that the U.S. housing market might finally be bottoming out. Since July, the decline in sales of both new and existing homes has moderated. Moreover, over the past three months, there has been a very modest increase in home prices at the national level as measured by the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.However, the high inventory of unsold homes, continuing foreclosures, and double-digit unemployment could mean that housing prices have further to fall.
Despite small declines in recent months, the inventory of unsold homes at the national level remains at close to its historic high. A key indication of the degree of excess home inventory is that the number of vacant homes, in which neither an owner nor a renter presently dwells, exceeds its normal level by nearly 1 million units.
The United States is presently suffering from a foreclosure crisis that is further adding more homes to a market already characterized by excess inventories. Forward-looking indicators, such as the number of mortgages that are more than 90 days delinquent (i.e., behind payment) suggest that the pace of foreclosures could increase in the months ahead.
Next year, approximately $200 billion in "Option ARM" mortgages (adjustable rate mortgages) are due to reset to higher rates. This is likely to add to the foreclosure problem, since these resets will produce a sharp jump in debt service payments.
The Outlook: The present high level of unsold housing inventories, the poor state of the labor market and the current wave of foreclosures suggest that home prices may have a further 10% to fall (in real terms). This will add to the financial distress facing the banking sector, inhibiting a return to above trend GDP growth in 2010.
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The combination of a weak economy and a production boom has dropped the cost of heating with natural gas to a six-year low and is keeping a lid on other heat sources as well. But you can still save more.
If you use natural gas, you'll spend $434 to $1,044 to keep your home toasty, according to the Energy Information Administration. That is 3% to 22% less than last year. You'll also catch a break if you use propane, which is a byproduct of natural gas, since propane prices are forecast to fall 12%. If you heat with oil, you won't be so lucky: Depending on where you live, you'll spend $912 to $1,722, or 0.3% to 18% more. Electric heat costs will range from $792 in the West to $1,526 in the Northeast.
Assuming you've already tried all the standard stuff for cutting down on your energy costs this winter, like caulking windows and doors, and making sure outlets are insulated — beefing up your attic insulation and adding a programmable thermostat — make sure your heating system is running as efficiently as possible. Clean or change your air filter monthly during the winter and schedule a furnace tune-up. That can extend the life of your system and shave as much as 10% off your heating bill.
Finally, don't forget about your water heater, which accounts for 15% to 25% of your energy costs. Turn down your water thermostat and, if the heater is in an unheated area, wrap it in an insulating "jacket."
